As part of its quarterly regional economic projections, the Institute of Economics and Business Development (IEDEP) of the Lima Chamber of Commerce (CCL) estimated that Peruvian GDP will grow 3.1% by the end of this year. Its performance will mainly be affected by domestic demand, as well as by the continued dynamism of the manufacturing, construction, commerce, and services sectors.
“The aforementioned estimate would allow Peru to position itself as the regional economy with the third highest rate of growth, only behind Paraguay and Argentina,” said IEDEP head Óscar Chávez in a press release. That level of growth will place the economy above several of its peers despite being slightly lower than the projected 3.2% for this year. IEDEP added that the local economy will continue to enjoy a favorable macroeconomic environment next year, defined by low inflation, stability of the currency exchange rate, and continuity of monetary policy.
“In that sense, purchasing power should be maintained while private investment would be encouraged, with credit continuing to grow at good rates,” reads the statement. These factors allowed Peru to partially counter headwinds affecting several of its peers, including fiscal adjustments, delayed recoveries, high inflation, rising interest rates, and external uncertainty.
Headwinds also include political matters, particularly how the presidential election process develops. While there is optimism regarding who will emerge as the winner, analysts point out that it could generate hesitation among investors and throughout decision-making processes in both public and private spheres.
Changing composition of growth
As noted by IEDEP, another relevant characteristic of Peru’s economic scenario is the change in the composition of GDP. Growth during 2026 would exhibit less participation from extractive industries and greater contribution from sectors linked to the domestic market.
“In fact, this marks the gradual recovery of internal demand supported by improvements in labor market conditions and growth in household income and business activity,” said the CCL think tank.
Non-primary sectors of the economy
- Manufacturing: This sector will expand 2.7% as a result of higher private spending and increased capacity utilization. Manufacturing industries are gradually recovering confidence and have experienced an increase in sales.
- Electricity, gas, and water: These utilities will grow 3% in line with economic activity. Growth in these industries will be driven by higher spending from commerce, households, and industries, as well as projects to expand and improve service in urban areas and some semi-urban areas.
- Construction: After several years of sluggish activity, construction should continue to gather steam and grow by 3.6% in 2026 thanks to private investment and, to a lesser extent, higher public investment. Moreover, the good execution of projects launched in previous years will continue contributing to activity, such as real estate development, commercial construction projects, and infrastructure that begins to take off.
- Commerce: This sector will benefit from the dynamism of private consumption and higher levels of formal employment, growing 3.5% next year. Improvements in both variables, together with benign inflation, should support retail and wholesale activity nationwide.
- Services: Among the sectors analyzed by IEDEP, services should be the strongest performer, expanding 4% as a result of the recovery of some labor-intensive industries and higher incomes. Transportation, tourism, hotels and restaurants, business-related services, as well as personal services industries, should continue gaining steam as mobility improves.
Primary sectors of the economy
- Agriculture: Led by basic grains and permanent crops, this sector is expected to grow by 3.3% during 2026, albeit at a more moderate pace than during 2025. Stable domestic demand and exports will help keep activity afloat.
- Fishing: Fishing is expected to rebound 2.8% as a result of improved oceanographic conditions, benefiting both industrial and artisan fishing.
- Mining and hydrocarbons: Activity in mining and hydrocarbon exploration will continue losing share and grow only by 1.2% in 2026, limited by the lack of start-ups of large mining projects, as well as operational restrictions affecting some existing mines.
Activity for the first months of 2026
IEDEP also presented figures for sectoral activity during the first trimester of next year:
- Commerce: 4.4%
- Services: 4.1%
- Agriculture: 7.7%, as a result of favorable production campaigns.
- Mining and hydrocarbons: -0.6%
- Construction: 6.9%, as a result of greater advanced execution of investment projects.
- Manufacturing: 5.9%
Taking into account the different segments of spending, domestic demand will remain the main driver of growth during the first few months of the year, growing by 5.5% as a result of healthy expansion in private consumption. Private investment would grow by 9.2%, buoyed by improved confidence as well as greater capacity and projects initiated towards the end of 2025.
Public investment would increase by 5.6% as it gears up following projects carried forward from last year, as well as the entry of the new fiscal year. In the external sector, exports will grow by 1.5% as mining and hydrocarbon shipments lag, while imports will grow at a faster clip of 6.7% as they are supported by greater consumer spending and demand for capital goods (equipment) associated with higher investment levels.
“In general terms, the projection presents robust growth that is explained fundamentally by internal demand, anticipating a slowdown in the growth rate as we advance in quarters and the economic cycle normalizes,” Chávez concluded