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Projections and Economic Challenges in Panama in 2025

Projections and Economic Challenges in Panama in 2025

Reforms to the Panama Social Security Fund (CSS), employment, the mining sector, the recovery of investment-grade credit ratings, the international context, and public fund management will be the key topics shaping the country’s economic dynamism this year. Panama is expected to maintain moderate economic growth in 2025, with projections ranging between 3% and 5%. Economic diversification and infrastructure investments are critical to this growth.

The Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), under the leadership of Felipe Chapman, estimates that real GDP will grow by 4% and nominal GDP will increase by 6%. These projections are complemented by those from JP Morgan, which estimates a growth rate of 5.2% for Panama, while Moody’s forecasts 4%. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) projects 3%; the International Monetary Fund (IMF) 2.5%; Barclays 2.2%; and the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) 2.0%. The World Bank (WB) has expressed that Panama should experience stable growth of 3% in 2025. However, the country faces economic challenges in Panama in 2025 related to inequality and the need for structural reforms.

Raúl Bethancourt, an economist and member of the Panama Association of Economists, mentioned that while the economic growth projections for 2025 are encouraging, “everything will depend on how the government manages reforms to the Social Security Fund (CSS) and decisions regarding the Cobre Panamá mine, located in Donoso, Colón province.”

More specifically, Allan Corbett, an adjunct professor in the master’s program at the University of Panama, explained that comparing government projections with those from international organizations reveals an inherent complexity in evaluating economic growth. International agencies typically adjust their estimates mid-year or year-end due to their cautious approach, which tends to be more conservative than government reports.

Sectors

Bethancourt commented that Panama continues to rely on traditional sectors to drive economic growth in 2025: ports, airports, tourism, and the Panama Canal. However, he emphasized the need to prioritize the industrial and agricultural sectors. “Infrastructure investments should not be confused with investments that develop the port and agro-industrial sectors,” he said.

Economist Víctor Cruz agreed with Corbett that the agricultural and industrial sectors, wholesale and retail trade, and banking sectors will drive growth and employment. Former Economy Minister Fernando Aramburú-Porras added that another sector that could boost the economy is mining if the government, with the approval of the population and the National Assembly, decides to reopen the copper mine under new terms that are “more favorable and sustainable” for the country. “This would also improve the investment climate in the country and boost employment and public finances,” Aramburú-Porras emphasized.

Social Security Fund (CSS)

Regarding the impact of CSS reforms on economic challenges in Panama in 2025, Aramburú-Porras stressed the importance of resolving the crisis in the Disability, Old Age, and Survivors (IVM) program, as it significantly affects the country’s risk profile and public finances. Credit rating agencies have highlighted the critical importance of CSS reforms.

According to Standard & Poor’s, successfully implementing these reforms is essential to improving the country’s fiscal sustainability and preventing the loss of investment-grade credit ratings. Corbett warned that unresolved issues with the CSS are a critical factor influencing social stability and economic growth.

“The lack of agreements on reforms that fail to provide a long-term solution could lead to social unrest and institutional distrust, negatively affecting foreign investment and domestic consumption,” he said. He also cautioned that any signs of instability or cuts to benefits could have adverse effects. “Uncertainty could lead to more conservative spending behavior, potentially slowing economic growth,” he noted.

Mining

Cruz believes the issue of the Cobre Panamá mine remains unresolved for now. He stated that decisions on selling extracted materials or reopening the mine would depend on achieving broad consensus, given the economic challenges in Panama in 2025 related to fiscal constraints.

Corbett, however, does not foresee any agreements during 2025 aside from laying the groundwork for negotiations on closure or compensation. He believes substantive negotiations would occur after 2025 when there is a more favorable political and economic environment for discussing exploitation or a definitive “no.”

Bethancourt emphasized that CSS reforms and decisions about mining are likely to create uncertainty, initially leading to social tensions that could threaten the country’s political and economic stability. This, in turn, could negatively influence macroeconomic projections unless confidence levels improve—a factor currently lacking.

Credit rating evaluations in 2025 could generate further uncertainty amid expectations that the government can attract foreign direct investment and secure better financing terms. Fitch Ratings recently upgraded Panama’s credit rating from ‘BB+’ to ‘BBB—.’ Similarly, Standard & Poor’s raised the country’s rating to ‘BBB—’ from ‘BB+,’ and Moody’s upgraded Panama’s debt rating to investment-grade status, moving from ‘Ba1’ to ‘Baa3’.

Economist Cruz highlighted that Fitch’s downgrade to investment-grade status represents another hurdle the government must address, as this rating affects both future financing needs and the willingness of foreign investors to invest in the country. He reiterated, “Investments, rather than operational spending, should be the government’s focus, as they improve the business platform and promote the foreign investments crucial for further energizing the national economy.”

Employment

In the labor market, employment consultant René Quevedo pointed out that between August 2023 and October 2024, 54,307 formal non-agricultural jobs were lost, according to the most recent Labor Report from the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC). These figures underscore economic challenges in Panama in 2025, particularly in the labor sector.

Quevedo noted that between January and October 2024, the Ministry of Labor processed an average of 23,700 new monthly contracts, nearly 9,000 fewer (-27%) than five years ago. He emphasized the urgent need to ease banking financing requirements for private companies, particularly micro-businesses, which form the backbone of employment generation in the country.

International Context

Panama’s economy is closely tied to trade and international investment flows. According to Bethancourt, one of the economic challenges in Panama in 2025 is navigating high interest rates in the United States, which could increase the cost of external financing and potentially reduce foreign direct investment.

Corbett highlighted that Panama’s economic growth in 2025 would depend on internal and external factors. Effective management of institutional challenges, economic diversification, and adaptation to consumer behavior trends will be crucial. “Panama’s ability to communicate and position itself internationally, especially in a changing political context, will be decisive for its economic future,” he concluded.

Budget and Strategic Plan

For 2025, the government of President José Raúl Mulino will operate with a General State Budget of $26.084 billion, representing a 15% reduction ($4.605 billion less) compared to 2024. This reflects the economic challenges in Panama in 2025, as the government balances fiscal discipline with the need to stimulate growth.

 Conclusion

In conclusion, Panama’s economic outlook for 2025 reflects a delicate balance between moderate growth projections and significant challenges that demand strategic action. Reforms to the Social Security Fund (CSS), decisions regarding the Cobre Panamá mine, and efforts to foster economic diversification will be pivotal in shaping the country’s economic trajectory. The government’s ability to attract foreign investment, manage fiscal discipline, and promote sustainable sectors such as agriculture, industry, and mining will be crucial in overcoming economic hurdles. Addressing employment challenges, navigating global economic pressures, and strengthening public confidence is imperative to sustaining growth and stability. By effectively leveraging its strategic geographic position and enhancing its investment climate, Panama can position itself for long-term economic resilience and prosperity.

Manufacturing in Brazil: A Comprehensive Overview

Manufacturing in Brazil: A Comprehensive Overview

Brazil, the largest economy in South America, stands as a powerhouse for manufacturing activities thanks to its abundant natural resources, vast internal market, and strategic global position. The country has developed robust industries supported by physical infrastructure, a skilled workforce, and government incentives, making it a compelling destination for businesses looking to expand their manufacturing operations. This blog post delves into the factors that make manufacturing in Brazil a thriving enterprise, including its leading industries, key companies, infrastructure, and government incentives.

Strategic Advantages of Manufacturing in Brazil

Rich Natural Resources:

Brazil has extensive natural resources that serve as raw materials for various manufacturing sectors. The country boasts abundant iron ore, bauxite, and manganese reserves, which support its steel and aluminum production industries. Brazil’s fertile land also makes it a leading producer of agricultural commodities such as soybeans, sugarcane, and corn, fueling its agro-industrial sector. Brazil’s significant oil and gas reserves also provide a reliable energy source and raw materials for petrochemical manufacturing. This vast resource wealth gives manufacturers a competitive edge in raw material costs and accessibility.

Large Domestic Market:

With a population exceeding 210 million, Brazil offers a vast internal market for manufactured goods. This large consumer base supports the automotive and consumer electronics industries, ensuring consistent demand. Furthermore, the country’s rising middle class and increasing urbanization have created new opportunities for sectors like home appliances, construction materials, and personal care products. Companies establishing themselves in Brazil benefit from local demand and a consumer market that increasingly values innovation and quality.

Strategic Location:

Situated between the Atlantic Ocean and South America’s interior, Brazil provides access to international shipping routes and a gateway to other Latin American markets. Its membership in trade agreements such as Mercosur further enhances its trade connectivity. The country’s proximity to emerging markets in Africa and its active participation in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) also contribute to its global trade significance. This strategic position makes Brazil an ideal location for companies aiming to expand into multiple markets simultaneously.

Leading Manufacturing Industries and Companies

Brazil’s manufacturing sector is diverse, with several industries standing out for their economic contribution and global impact.

Automotive Industry:

The automotive sector is one of the most prominent in Brazil, contributing significantly to the country’s GDP. International automakers such as Volkswagen, General Motors, Fiat, and Toyota have established manufacturing plants in cities like São Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Rio Grande do Sul. Domestic brands like Embraer, renowned for its aircraft manufacturing, also play a crucial role. Brazil has also recently embraced electric vehicle (EV) production, with new investments to capture a share of the growing global EV market—this diversification into EV manufacturing positions Brazil as a forward-thinking player in the automotive industry.

Steel and Aluminum Production:

Brazil is a global leader in steel production, with companies like Gerdau and Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSN) dominating the market. These companies benefit from proximity to high-grade iron ore mines, particularly in Minas Gerais. Additionally, the aluminum sector has seen growth due to its integration with renewable energy sources, enhancing sustainability in production. This alignment with global sustainability trends strengthens Brazil’s appeal as an environmentally conscious manufacturing hub.

Agro-Industrial Manufacturing:

The agro-industrial sector thrives on Brazil’s agricultural output. Companies such as BRF and JBS lead in food processing and export, while ethanol production from sugarcane positions Brazil as a pioneer in biofuels. The sector also supports packaging and machinery manufacturing industries, creating a value-added ecosystem around agriculture. This interconnection of industries fosters innovation and efficiency, enabling Brazil to remain a global leader in agricultural manufacturing.

Electronics and Technology:

Regions like Manaus, home to the Manaus Free Trade Zone, have become hubs for electronics manufacturing. Companies like Samsung and LG produce smartphones, televisions, and other electronics, benefiting from fiscal incentives. Moreover, Brazil’s growing technology ecosystem has spurred innovation in industrial automation and Internet of Things (IoT) solutions for manufacturing. The government’s focus on digital transformation ensures Brazil remains competitive in advanced manufacturing technologies.

Physical and Human Infrastructure

Transportation Networks:

Brazil has a well-developed network of roads, railways, ports, and airports that facilitate the transport of goods and raw materials. Key ports like Santos in São Paulo and Paranaguá in Paraná handle a significant portion of Brazil’s exports, while rail systems such as the Ferrovia Norte-Sul link industrial hubs to ports. Recent investments in port modernization and expanded logistics corridors enhance connectivity across the country. This improved infrastructure minimizes bottlenecks and supports efficient supply chain operations.

Energy Supply:

Brazil’s energy matrix is one of the greenest in the world, with significant reliance on hydroelectric power. This reliable, cost-effective energy source supports energy-intensive industries like steel and aluminum production. Complementing hydroelectricity, Brazil has invested in wind and solar power projects, ensuring energy diversification and sustainability. This focus on renewable energy makes Brazil an attractive destination for environmentally conscious manufacturers.

Skilled Workforce:

A network of technical schools and universities supports the country’s manufacturing workforce. Institutions like SENAI (National Service for Industrial Training) provide specialized training in industrial skills, ensuring a steady supply of qualified workers. Additionally, partnerships between universities and industry players foster innovation, particularly in advanced manufacturing techniques like 3D printing and robotics. This commitment to education and innovation ensures Brazil’s workforce remains competitive globally.

Government Incentives for Manufacturing in Brazil

Brazil’s government actively promotes manufacturing through various incentives, creating a favorable environment for domestic and foreign investors.

Tax Incentives:

Brazil offers numerous tax benefits to manufacturers. For instance, the Special Regime for Industrial Development (REIDI) exempts taxes on infrastructure-related goods and services, reducing operational costs. Additionally, regional development programs provide tailored incentives to stimulate investment in less industrialized areas. These initiatives help level the playing field, encouraging widespread industrial growth.

Special Customs Regimes:

Manufacturers benefit from customs regimes like “Drawback” and “Repetro.” The Drawback system allows companies to import raw materials and components tax-free, provided they are used for exports. Repetro supports the oil and gas sector by offering tax exemptions on imported equipment. These regimes have significantly boosted export-oriented manufacturing activities, enhancing Brazil’s competitiveness in global markets.

Free Trade Zones:

The Manaus Free Trade Zone is a prime example of Brazil’s commitment to manufacturing. Companies operating in this zone enjoy exemptions from federal taxes like the IPI (Tax on Industrialized Products) and significant reductions in import duties, fostering the growth of electronics and other industries. Similar regional initiatives aim to decentralize industrial growth, ensuring equitable economic development.

Regional Manufacturing Hubs

São Paulo:

As Brazil’s economic powerhouse, São Paulo is home to many industries, including automotive, chemicals, and consumer goods. The city’s advanced infrastructure and access to skilled labor make it a top choice for manufacturers. It also serves as a hub for research and development activities, particularly in pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, further diversifying its industrial landscape.

Minas Gerais:

Known for its mining industry, Minas Gerais is also a center for steel and metallurgical manufacturing. Cities like Belo Horizonte serve as hubs for industrial activity. The state’s strategic focus on renewable energy integration has attracted investments in green manufacturing, positioning it as a leader in sustainable industrial practices.

Rio de Janeiro:

The oil and gas industry drives Rio’s manufacturing sector. The state hosts refineries, petrochemical plants, and companies specializing in offshore equipment. Recent developments in offshore wind energy projects open new opportunities for related manufacturing activities, signaling a shift towards diversified energy sources.

Southern Brazil (Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul):

These states are renowned for their automotive, food processing, and machinery industries. Cities like Curitiba and Porto Alegre lead in innovation and export-driven manufacturing. The region’s proximity to key ports enhances its export capabilities, particularly for high-value products. Southern Brazil’s commitment to innovation is vital to its industrial success.

Challenges and Opportunities

While manufacturing in Brazil offers numerous advantages, challenges like bureaucratic hurdles, high tax burdens, and complex labor laws persist. However, recent government efforts to streamline regulations and reduce costs create new growth opportunities. Programs like the Simplifica Brasil initiative aim to cut red tape, while proposed tax reforms promise to unify and simplify the tax system.

For instance, the federal government’s economic reforms aim to simplify tax structures and improve infrastructure. Brazil’s emphasis on sustainability and green energy also opens doors for eco-friendly manufacturing initiatives. Adopting Industry 4.0 technologies is another avenue for growth, with increased automation and digitalization improving productivity and competitiveness. These reforms and innovations ensure Brazil remains a manufacturing leader.

Conclusion

Manufacturing in Brazil presents a dynamic landscape of opportunities for businesses. The country has built a solid foundation for industrial growth from its abundant natural resources and skilled workforce to its strategic location and government incentives. Despite challenges, ongoing reforms and investments in infrastructure and sustainability promise a bright future for manufacturing in Brazil.

For companies seeking to expand their operations, understanding the nuances of Brazil’s manufacturing ecosystem is key to leveraging its full potential. With the right strategies, businesses can thrive in this vibrant and resource-rich environment. Manufacturers can position themselves for long-term success in one of the world’s most promising industrial landscapes by capitalizing on Brazil’s strategic advantages and navigating its unique challenges.

2024 Ends with Growth in International Tourism and Foreign Investment in Colombia

2024 Ends with Growth in International Tourism and Foreign Investment in Colombia

The Ministry of Commerce, Industry, and Tourism (MinCIT) has announced a remarkable year for Colombia, marked by significant achievements in international tourism, foreign investment, and non-mining energy exports. From January to October 2024, the country welcomed 5.3 million non-resident visitors, reflecting a 9.4% increase compared to the same period in 2023, when 4.87 million visitors were recorded. This growth demonstrates Colombia’s growing appeal as a destination for travelers and investors alike. With its vibrant culture, breathtaking landscapes, and strategic efforts in promotion and connectivity, Colombia is solidifying its position as a global economic and tourism powerhouse.

Tourism Generates Record Revenues

Tourism revenues exceeded $7.44 billion as of September 2024, representing a robust 14% increase compared to the same period in 2023. ProColombia, the country’s official promotion agency, highlighted these figures alongside the addition of 26 new air routes that have significantly boosted Colombia’s global connectivity. This expanded connectivity has played a key role in attracting international visitors and strengthening the country’s position as a hub for global travel. Notable destinations such as Bogotá, Medellín, Cartagena, and Cali have benefited immensely from these improvements, recording higher occupancy rates and a surge in tourism-related activities.

Colombia continues to distinguish itself as a leader in sustainable tourism, leveraging its unparalleled biodiversity to captivate environmentally conscious travelers. Activities such as birdwatching, which highlights the country’s rich avian diversity, are increasingly popular. Colombia is home to over 1,900 bird species, making it a top destination for birdwatchers worldwide. Additionally, Colombia now boasts nine beaches certified with the prestigious Blue Flag designation—a globally recognized eco-certification awarded to beaches and ports meeting stringent environmental and safety standards. These include renowned destinations like Playa Blanca in Barú and Playa de Palomino, which have become icons of eco-friendly travel. Moreover, 20 destinations nationwide have achieved sustainable tourism certifications, underscoring Colombia’s commitment to promoting eco-friendly travel experiences.

Government and private sector collaboration have also played a pivotal role in driving tourism growth. Investments in infrastructure, such as upgraded airports and improved road networks, have made even remote locations more accessible to visitors. This, coupled with strategic marketing campaigns, has helped position Colombia as an adventure tourism hotspot, offering everything from hiking and river rafting to cultural and gastronomic experiences.

Export Diversification Drives Growth

In the export sector, Colombia achieved notable success in diversifying its markets. Products such as coffee, exotic fruits, fashion, and technology entered many international markets, further showcasing Colombia’s broad economic capabilities. Non-mining energy exports increased by 9.6% between January and October 2024 compared to the previous year, reaching an impressive $18.05 billion. This growth was bolstered by the rise in demand for renewable energy components and agricultural products, which align with global trends emphasizing sustainability.

ProColombia emphasized the contributions of over 6,699 Colombian companies that brought their offerings to international markets during this period. These businesses ranged from small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to established corporations, leveraging Colombia’s trade agreements and logistics advantages. Initiatives like the “Colombia Exports More” program have provided essential support to exporters, enabling them to navigate international markets more effectively. This surge in export activity reflects an ongoing transformation aimed at diversifying the nation’s trade portfolio. By entering new markets and enhancing product quality, Colombia continues to showcase the best of its industries while driving economic growth and strengthening its global economic footprint.

Foreign Investment in Colombia Reaches New Heights

Foreign investment in Colombia has also surged to impressive levels. According to the Bank of the Republic’s Balance of Payments report, foreign investment inflows reached $9.95 billion by September 2024. Of this total, 68.7% was directed toward non-mining energy sectors, demonstrating a growing interest in Colombia’s diversified economy. Investments in renewable energy, including solar and wind projects, have been particularly prominent as Colombia positions itself as a regional leader in the transition to cleaner energy.

High-profile initiatives like the Colombia Sustainable Investment Roadshow in London and participation in the Annual Investment Meeting (AIM) Congress in Abu Dhabi have played pivotal roles in attracting foreign investment in Colombia. These events showcased Colombia’s competitive advantages, including its skilled workforce, strategic geographic location, and robust legal framework for investors. Additionally, the recent launch of the Tourism Investment Guide, created in collaboration with UNWTO, took place in Cartagena, providing valuable insights to potential investors. This comprehensive guide outlines investment opportunities in various regions, focusing on tourism, technology, and infrastructure sectors.

Colombia’s commitment to economic stability is another factor contributing to the surge in foreign investment. Reforms aimed at simplifying tax regulations and improving investor protections have made the country increasingly attractive. Regional initiatives like special economic zones have further incentivized investments by offering tax breaks and infrastructure support. These efforts have positioned Colombia as a key destination for foreign investment, particularly in strategic regions like Antioquia, Valle del Cauca, and Atlántico.

Promoting Colombia’s Global Image

Throughout 2024, Colombia’s national branding campaign, Colombia, the Country of Beauty, made a splash on some of the world’s most prominent stages. The campaign was showcased at iconic locations such as the Burj Khalifa in Dubai, Piccadilly Circus in London, Madrid, the Sphere in Las Vegas, and Davos. It also featured prominently at the Colombia House during the 2024 Paris Olympics. This global visibility has enhanced Colombia’s reputation as a premier tourist destination and a highly attractive environment for foreign investment. The campaign has captured international attention by highlighting the country’s unique attributes—from its vibrant culture to its economic potential.

In addition to large-scale branding efforts, Colombia has also focused on digital outreach. Social media campaigns, virtual reality experiences, and online platforms have allowed the country to engage with global audiences innovatively. These strategies have increased awareness and encouraged direct interaction with potential visitors and investors.

Sustainable Growth and Future Prospects

Carmen Caballero, President of ProColombia, expressed optimism for 2025, emphasizing the need to consolidate this year’s achievements and sustain the economic growth trajectory. “We are ready to continue building on these successes and to drive sustainable development that positively impacts our nation,” she stated. This vision includes further investment in green initiatives, tourism infrastructure, and export diversification to maintain Colombia’s upward trajectory.

The growth of international tourism and foreign investment in Colombia has proven mutually reinforcing. As Colombia attracts more travelers with its sustainable tourism initiatives, the country’s international profile rises, further drawing the attention of global investors. Expanding air connectivity and diversified export markets also contribute to an environment conducive to economic resilience. Collaboration between public and private sectors will ensure this growth translates into widespread benefits for Colombian citizens.

In summary, Colombia’s performance in 2024 highlights the nation’s growing role as a global tourism hotspot and a leading destination for foreign investment. By embracing sustainability, enhancing connectivity, and fostering economic diversification, Colombia is charting a path of continued growth poised to yield long-term benefits for its people and economy. With momentum on its side, the country is set to make 2025 another banner year in its journey toward becoming a global leader in tourism and investment.

The Milei Economic Miracle Has No End: Poverty Plummets in Argentina in the Second Half of 2024

The Milei Economic Miracle Has No End: Poverty Plummets in Argentina in the Second Half of 2024

 

  • The poverty rate has dropped from 55% to 38.9%.
  • Poverty declines as real wages recover sharply.
  • Job creation in recent quarters has also contributed.

Javier Milei’s economic plan has achieved results surprisingly quickly: multiple fiscal surpluses, powerful disinflation (monthly inflation dropped from 25% to 2.4% within a few months), a dramatic reduction in country risk, the opening of dollar markets for some companies, a stable energy trade surplus, and an increase in gross dollar reserves. These developments have become hallmarks of what many are calling the Milei economic miracle. However, this plan initially had a significant weakness. In the first months of Milei’s government, the poverty rate rose above 50%, an alarmingly high figure that overshadowed nearly every financial and economic achievement.

Nevertheless, according to preliminary data, indicators, and studies conducted by various institutions, poverty in Argentina has plummeted in the second half of 2024. Although this was expected due to the notable increase in real wages (discounting inflation) and the drop in unemployment in recent quarters, the decline in poverty has been remarkable, falling from nearly 55% in the first quarter to below 40% by the third quarter of 2024. This achievement is a testament to the Milei economic miracle, which has defied early critics and surpassed expectations.

The return of economic growth, increased investment, and rising real wages are rapidly reducing the poverty rate in Argentina. This improvement stems partly from the same policies that initially led to elevated levels of poverty: drastic public spending cuts, restructuring of the central bank’s balance sheet, deregulation of specific sectors, and liberalization of prices in the economy. These measures came at a short-term cost to Argentina’s economy, including higher unemployment, suppressed real wages, and an elevated poverty rate.

However, the recovery of these indicators began in the second half of the year, leading to a decline in poverty. While official poverty data will not be published by Indec (Argentina’s national statistics institute) until well into 2025, studies conducted by the Torcuato Di Tella University have already revealed a month-by-month decline in poverty rates. The most significant change, however, came with the latest report published by the Ministry of Human Capital through the National Council for the Coordination of Social Policies (CNCPS). Using official Indec data, the report projects that poverty fell to 38.9% in the third quarter of 2024, a 15-point drop compared to the first quarter. These results further reinforce the Milei economic miracle and its ability to foster swift economic recovery.

Why Poverty Is Declining

Thanks to implementing economic policies that have reduced inflation and stabilized the economy, poverty has declined significantly in the second half of the year (although the decline began in the second quarter). The poverty rate dropped from 54.8% in the first quarter to 51% in the second quarter, with a mid-year result of 52.9% and a projected sharp fall to 38.9% for the third quarter. The CNCPS emphasizes that it used the same data and parameters as Indec, which are publicly available. The only difference is that the statistics institute releases poverty data only twice a year, although the available data could allow for quarterly reporting, as demonstrated by CNCPS.

The key to this reduction in poverty lies in economic recovery, real wage growth (wages are rising faster than inflation due to its moderation), and falling unemployment, which has accompanied the economic rebound. The Milei economic miracle has also bolstered investment confidence, driving growth across key sectors. Argentina’s economy has exceeded all growth expectations for the year’s third quarter. GDP expanded by 3.9% compared to the previous quarter, equivalent to an annualized growth rate of nearly 17% (using this projection model favored by Americans). Market consensus had anticipated a 3% quarterly growth and a 2.6% year-over-year decline.

Increased Investment and Employment

More importantly, an analysis of GDP data reveals a surge in private investment—a key driver of future economic growth and employment. Investment has soared thanks to deregulation and increased economic certainty by several government-approved laws. As a result, the unemployment rate has fallen from 7.7% in the first quarter of the year to 6.9% in the third quarter, the latest official figure.

A prime example of this investment boom is Argentina’s mining sector, which grew by 7.3% quarterly, making it the second-fastest-growing sector after agriculture (aided by a strong harvest this year). The mining sector includes oil, with substantial investments in Vaca Muerta, a shale oil field now producing over 430,000 barrels of unconventional crude oil daily. Vaca Muerta promises to secure consistent current account surpluses for Argentina, bringing in more dollars to stabilize the peso’s exchange rate. Additionally, investments in Vaca Muerta contribute to gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), boosting present production and improving future expectations.

Daniel Fernández, an economics professor at Universidad Francisco Marroquín, explained in a recent analysis that “the economy continues to shine, leading to rising wages and employment growth. Milei’s government has achieved the ‘miracle’ of stabilizing the country’s macroeconomy without destroying its economy (now growing annually) and relying on foreign investment. Attracting foreign investment should be one of the government’s next goals,” he added.

International Endorsements

In early December, the OECD acknowledged Argentina’s positive and hopeful economic signs regarding growth, reforms, and inflation. The international organization praised Argentina for achieving a primary fiscal surplus between January and October this year—something “not seen since 2010.” These developments underscore the Milei economic miracle, which has already reshaped Argentina’s fiscal landscape.

The United States, Spain, and Mexico: Top Investors in the Dominican Republic Through September 2024

The United States, Spain, and Mexico: Top Investors in the Dominican Republic Through September 2024

Canada, with US$187.8 million, Brazil, US$146.3 million, and Panama, US$138.3 million, are the subsequent largest investors. By the end of the third quarter of this year, the Dominican Republic had received US$3,571.8 million in foreign direct investment (FDI), of which US$1,680.3 million came from the United States, Spain and Mexico, representing 47% of the total accumulated through September.

Although the January-September 2024 period saw a decrease of US$250.3 million compared to 2023, the United States remains the leader in foreign investment flows into the country during the first nine months of this year, reaching US$785.2 million. This reflects sustained investor confidence in the Dominican Republic as a stable and attractive destination for foreign capital.

By the end of the third quarter, Spain’s FDI had decreased by US$44.1 million compared to last year. Yet, according to statistics from the Central Bank, it ranked second among countries with the highest investments, accumulating US$499.2 million. Despite the reduction, Spain’s commitment to sectors such as tourism and energy has ensured its place as one of the top investors in the Dominican Republic.

Mexico ranked third in the list of top investor countries during the first nine months of 2024, with a total of US$395.9 million, an increase of US$166.2 million compared to 2023. This sharp rise underscores Mexico’s growing interest in diverse sectors, including energy and manufacturing, as the Dominican Republic is a gateway to the Caribbean and Central American markets.

Canada, with US$187.8 million; Brazil, US$146.3 million; and Panama, US$138.3 million, occupy the following positions. These countries have concentrated their energy, real estate, and tourism investments. In contrast, El Salvador has not shown any investment since 2016, and Australia has not invested in the Dominican Republic since 2020. These gaps indicate opportunities for countries to re-engage with the Dominican market as it continues its progressive economic growth.

FDI flows highlight foreign investors’ confidence in the Dominican Republic as a business destination. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the country has been the second-largest recipient of FDI in the region, behind Mexico, since 2022. This accomplishment reflects a combination of strategic location, business-friendly policies, and a diversified economy that appeals to global investors. The United States, Spain, and Mexico have been consistently ranked as top investors in the Dominican Republic, demonstrating their long-term commitment to the country.

Destination of FDI

Tourism remains the most favored sector for foreign investors, who allocated US$1,003.5 million to tourism development projects in the country through September. Iconic destinations such as Punta Cana and Samaná continue to attract global brands and developers seeking to capitalize on the Dominican Republic’s thriving tourism industry. This sector alone accounts for nearly 30% of total FDI, reinforcing the country’s reputation as a prime destination for leisure and hospitality investments.

The energy sector ranks second, receiving US$792.3 million in investments. This surge is partly due to the government’s push for renewable energy projects aligning with global sustainability trends. Investments in wind, solar, and hydroelectric projects have made the Dominican Republic a leader in renewable energy initiatives in the Caribbean.

Commerce and industry follow closely, with FDI inflows amounting to US$553.3 million. These investments are essential for bolstering local supply chains, enhancing industrial capacity, and creating employment opportunities. The real estate sector, a niche that continues to expand for investment flows, received US$541.1 million, reflecting growing demand for commercial and residential developments in urban and suburban areas.

Free zones attracted FDI worth US$257.4 million. These zones have become vital hubs for export-oriented industries, particularly manufacturing and textiles. Foreign investment flows totaled US$163.7 million in mining from January to September 2024, emphasizing the country’s rich natural resources. The transportation sector reached US$170.6 million, highlighting the importance of infrastructure improvements for trade and mobility. Meanwhile, the financial sector recorded about US$126.3 million, showcasing steady banking and insurance services growth.

Foreign Exchange Inflows

The Dominican economy receives foreign exchange primarily through remittances, foreign direct investment, exports of goods, and other services. In the first half of this year, the Central Bank reported approximately US$21.9 billion in foreign exchange inflows, an increase of US$1.327 billion compared to the same period in 2023. This growth reflects the resilience of the Dominican economy in navigating global economic challenges.

The institution stated that this level of foreign exchange inflows contributes to the relative stability of the exchange rate, projecting that by the end of the year, the country could receive around US$43 billion in foreign exchange earnings. FDI remains a cornerstone of this financial stability, with the United States, Spain, and Mexico continuing to lead as top investors in the Dominican Republic.

In its report on FDI flows, the Central Bank highlighted the energy sector’s significant contribution. Its investment income rose from 7.5% in the first half of 2019 to 25.5% in the first six months of 2024. This growth is attributed to government incentives for renewable energy projects, which have attracted significant international players to the Dominican market.

Progressive Growth

Foreign direct investment has shown an upward trend since 2021, following recovery from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2022, foreign capital investments totaled US$4,098.8 million, increasing to US$4,390.2 million in 2023. Central Bank estimates indicate that FDI could surpass US$4.5 billion by the end of this year, further solidifying the country’s position as a regional leader in attracting foreign investment.

FDI flows and remittances remain the Dominican economy’s primary sources of foreign exchange. This underscores the importance of maintaining an attractive investment climate, particularly for the United States, Spain, and Mexico, the top investors in the Dominican Republic. These countries have contributed significant capital and brought expertise and technology that have enhanced the nation’s industrial and service sectors.

As the Dominican Republic continues diversifying its economy, energy, tourism, and commerce sectors will likely remain key targets for future investments. The government’s commitment to infrastructure development and regulatory reforms will be instrumental in sustaining this growth. With a strong foundation and robust investor interest, the Dominican Republic is poised to maintain its status as a top destination for foreign direct investment in the Caribbean and Latin America.

The Aerospace Industry in Chihuahua Will Be the Focus in 2025

The Aerospace Industry in Chihuahua Will Be the Focus in 2025

The Director of Economic Development and Competitiveness, José Jesús Jordán, announced that by 2025, Chihuahua aims to attract 1 billion pesos in industrial investments, particularly in the aerospace, automotive, and manufacturing sectors. This strategic focus reflects the city’s commitment to leveraging its strengths and positioning itself as a key player in these high-value industries.

Jordán explained that these investments will result from various initiatives and negotiations with national and international companies that have shown interest in establishing operations in the city. Among these sectors, the aerospace industry in Chihuahua has taken center stage due to its potential for significant economic impact and job creation. The projects primarily focus on the aerospace sector, with at least five new companies—including expansions and new facilities—expected to generate specialized jobs and contribute to the region’s economic growth.

Existing Aerospace Industry Presence in Chihuahua

Chihuahua, Mexico is already a central hub for the aerospace industry in Chihuahua and across Mexico. The state hosts an impressive cluster of global aerospace manufacturers and suppliers, including prominent names such as Honeywell, Cessna, Safran, and Fokker. These companies produce various aerospace components, including turbine blades, aircraft wiring systems, landing gear, and fuselage sections. Chihuahua’s established reputation as a reliable manufacturing location has made it a preferred destination for firms looking to tap into the skilled workforce and advanced manufacturing capabilities.

For example, Honeywell operates a significant facility in Chihuahua where it manufactures high-precision parts and avionics systems for commercial and military aircraft. Safran, another key player, produces engine components and landing gear in its local plants, contributing to the global supply chain of aerospace technology. Meanwhile, Cessna’s operations in Chihuahua focus on assembling critical components for small and mid-sized aircraft. These companies boost the local economy and provide valuable opportunities for workforce specialization and technological advancements, further strengthening the aerospace industry in Chihuahua.

Specialized Workforce Training and Education

The region has invested heavily in educational infrastructure and workforce development programs to support the growth of the aerospace industry in Chihuahua. Institutions like the Chihuahua Institute of Technology (ITCH) and local universities offer specialized courses in aerospace engineering, advanced manufacturing, and mechatronics. These programs are designed to equip students with the technical skills and knowledge required by the industry.

Additionally, Chihuahua benefits from partnerships between educational institutions and aerospace companies. For instance, Honeywell collaborates with local universities to provide internships, hands-on training, and research opportunities. These initiatives prepare graduates for immediate employment and ensure the workforce remains competitive in a rapidly evolving industry.

The state has also established dedicated training centers like the Aerospace Training Center in Chihuahua. This facility provides targeted programs in areas like CNC machining, robotics, and quality control—skills critical for meeting the high standards of aerospace manufacturing. By fostering a pipeline of skilled labor, these centers play a vital role in supporting the expansion of the aerospace industry in Chihuahua.

Infrastructure and Urban Development

Jordán emphasized the benefits of planned investments, which extend beyond job creation. The influx of aerospace companies is expected to strengthen Chihuahua’s infrastructure, including improvements in transportation networks and industrial facilities. To balance economic growth across the city, authorities focus on developing industrial projects in southern Chihuahua. This strategy aims to reduce mobility challenges, alleviate congestion, and promote job distribution across different areas.

By concentrating on new developments in the southern regions, the city seeks to improve the quality of life for its residents while ensuring sustainable urban growth. These efforts are supported by ongoing investments in public transportation, housing, and community amenities to accommodate the needs of the growing workforce.

Economic and Social Impact

The planned investments are projected to create both direct and indirect jobs, with a ripple effect across various sectors. Direct jobs will primarily involve high-skill positions in engineering, manufacturing, and quality assurance, while indirect jobs will emerge in supporting industries such as logistics, maintenance, and services. The growth of the aerospace industry in Chihuahua also fosters innovation, attracting startups and smaller enterprises that complement the operations of more prominent manufacturers.

Moreover, the focus on workforce training ensures that local talent can meet the aerospace industry’s specialized demands, reducing reliance on imported labor. This alignment between industry needs and educational programs underscores Chihuahua’s commitment to building a sustainable and self-reliant industrial ecosystem.

Conclusion

Chihuahua’s emphasis on the aerospace industry in Chihuahua in 2025 marks a pivotal step in its economic development journey. The city is well-positioned to achieve its ambitious goals with a robust presence of global aerospace manufacturers, a skilled workforce supported by advanced educational infrastructure, and strategic urban planning initiatives. The collaboration between government, industry, and academia not only bolsters Chihuahua’s competitiveness but also enhances the quality of life for its residents, paving the way for a prosperous and sustainable future.