The latest estimates from the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH) show that Honduras projects economic growth to be between 3.5% and 4% during both 2025 and 2026. The Central Bank disclosed these figures Monday, May 5, during the presentation of its official 2025–2026 Monetary Program, which explains the country’s future economic path and monetary goals.
Drivers of Economic Expansion
According to Central Bank President Rebeca Santos, Honduras projects economic growth driven mainly by strong domestic demand, which persists due to household spending power. Economic expansion originates from dynamic family remittances combined with regular income from coffee exports and money transfers from government social assistance initiatives.
Household disposable income levels have shown improvement according to the report findings. The money that Hondurans living abroad send back to their families serves as a key element in this financial pattern, with those in the United States contributing significantly. The funds elevate family purchasing power while promoting local community consumption and investment.
Public Investment Reaches Historic Levels
The Central Bank stated that public investment has hit new highs, now serving as a significant driver for expected growth. The government has focused its capital spending on strategic infrastructure areas including:
- Productive infrastructure to support agriculture and industry
- The construction of roads to strengthen both domestic logistics networks and cross-border transportation systems
- Healthcare and educational infrastructure development to boost human capital potential
- Renewable energy systems critical to supporting sustained industrial development
This increased public investment aims to trigger a multiplier effect, producing more jobs and boosting the nation’s productivity. Honduras projects economic growth in line with these investments, especially as its economic development trajectory continues upward through the mid-2020s.
Export Sector Outlook: Coffee Leads the Recovery
The partial recovery in major export categories—especially coffee, which dominates Honduras’s export market—contributes to the positive outlook. Stable or moderate global coffee prices and demand will provide benefits to Honduran farmers and exporters.
Despite intense competition in the international coffee market, Honduras holds the potential to secure and expand its market share through its established quality reputation and recent investments in sustainable agricultural productivity.
The forecast shows that exports will grow by 9.3% in 2025, followed by a mild decrease of 1.2% in 2026. Import projections indicate growth of 3.2% for 2025 and 3% for 2026, due to persistent domestic consumption demands and the need for raw materials and capital goods.
Opportunities for Global Trade Realignment
The Central Bank observed that despite recognized risks in the global economy, international developments might create fresh opportunities. The implementation of new international tariffs through global supply chain changes could enhance the country’s appeal to foreign direct investment.
Honduras projects economic growth partly through nearshoring strategies, which have attracted North American and European businesses searching for stable and affordable production sites in the Western Hemisphere. These shifts particularly benefit Honduras’s textile and apparel manufacturing sectors.
With improved logistics, better labor conditions, and an enhanced regulatory framework, Honduras is positioning itself to become more competitive within regional trade and investment networks.
Inflation Trends Remain Stable and Within Target
The report identifies the recent slowing of inflation as a central macroeconomic indicator. The Central Bank announced that inflation in 2024 finished at 3.88%, remaining beneath its 4% target range midpoint.
This deceleration is attributed to:
- Practical monetary policy actions by the BCH
- Prudent fiscal policy and controlled government spending
- State financial assistance that primarily benefits the energy and food industries
- Global price reductions in food and fuel acting as positive supply-side shocks
The BCH predicts that inflation will remain within its target range for both 2025 and 2026. Nevertheless, concerns remain about potential inflation drivers such as global supply chain disruptions, climate-related agricultural impacts, and phytosanitary or zoonotic risks to food supply chains.
Despite these risks, Honduras projects economic growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability, supported by comprehensive risk assessments and adaptive policy frameworks.
Family Remittances Provide Essential Financial Support
The BCH’s positive outlook relies heavily on the continued robust performance of family remittances. Foreign money transfers—mainly from the U.S.—should hit $10.2597 billion by 2025 and rise to $10.67 billion by 2026.
Since remittances make up more than 20% of Honduras’s GDP, they constitute crucial support for household income and national consumption. Indirect benefits also flow to business sectors such as construction, retail, and services.
The Central Bank has urged for new policies that direct these remittances toward productive uses, such as small business development and home improvement projects, to maximize long-term economic impact. In this context, Honduras projects economic growth supported by both private capital inflows and targeted public policy.
External and Internal Risks to Watch
Despite optimistic projections, the Central Bank highlights various internal and external risks that could shift the economic trajectory:
- External risks: U.S.-led trade regulation changes, immigration policy shifts, global commodity price volatility
- Internal risks: Climatic disruptions (e.g., hurricanes or droughts), and health threats to crops and livestock
To confront these challenges, the BCH emphasizes policy flexibility, such as expanding agricultural insurance programs, adapting trade policies, and implementing emergency fiscal responses.
Strong Reserve Position Ensures Economic Stability
Honduras maintains substantial international reserves, which currently cover more than five months of imports, exceeding regional benchmarks. This reserve strength enhances economic resilience, reinforces investor confidence, and allows the country to manage currency volatility and balance-of-payments risks.
Conclusion: Honduras on a Stable Growth Path
Honduras projects economic growth through a combination of strong domestic demand, strategic public investments, and favorable export performance. With stable inflation and prudent monetary policies, the nation has created a resilient macroeconomic foundation.
Though global uncertainties remain, Honduras is increasingly recognized as a competitive hub for regional supply chains and investment. Its strategic location, affordable labor, and improving infrastructure continue to attract international business.
Through effective governance and structural reforms, Honduras projects economic growth that will support poverty alleviation, job creation, and increased international competitiveness in the years to come.