Business confidence depends on stable regulatory frameworks, predictable judicial systems, and efficient logistics infrastructure.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is one of the engines of industrial transformation. Just as foreign capital shaped copper mining in Chile or boosted manufacturing in South Korea, today’s new investment flows signal a profound reshaping of the global economic map. The key question is what role economies like Guatemala’s will play in this new geometry, where the industries of the future define capital flows. In this context, Guatemalan nearshoring advantages are becoming increasingly relevant as companies rethink their global production networks.
Between 2022 and 2025, three-quarters of global foreign investment announcements were directed toward advanced sectors: data centers, semiconductors, electric vehicles, batteries, and clean energy. These are industries that require capital, knowledge, technology, and specialized talent—industries that are constructing the infrastructure that will support artificial intelligence, the energy transition, and next-generation manufacturing.
Latin America has experienced a paradox. Although the region continues to receive significant investment, the flows are directed primarily toward basic manufacturing rather than advanced sectors. While the region has not yet fully joined the major redesign of global investment, Guatemala has a concrete opportunity to position itself as a strategic node—especially if it manages to attract part of the productive relocation companies are seeking in an increasingly fragmented world. As the nearshoring trend accelerates, Guatemalan nearshoring advantages could help bridge the gap between traditional and high-value manufacturing.
The Geopolitical Shift in Investment and Its Implications
A recent McKinsey study titled The FDI Shake-Up analyzes the evolution of FDI in depth and shows that multinational companies are increasingly investing closer to their political allies. The “geopolitical distance” of FDI has dropped by more than 20% since the global financial crisis, meaning that capital flows now pursue not only economic efficiency but also strategic alignment.
The trend toward regionalization and reduced geopolitical distance favors countries with proximity to the United States. In this sense, Guatemala possesses a structural advantage: its location along the Central American corridor allows integration into North American supply chains. While Mexico has been the main beneficiary of the nearshoring trend, Guatemala could benefit as well if it manages to combine trade openness with political stability. It has the potential to capture the “second wave” of investment, particularly in advanced manufacturing, logistics centers, and digital services. These shifts further highlight the growing relevance of Guatemalan nearshoring advantages for companies diversifying their operations.
The report also highlights a revealing fact: megainvestments of more than US$1 billion—although they represent just 1% of all projects—account for nearly 50% of the total value of announced investment. These megadeals are transforming the global economy, especially in the technology and energy industries. For Guatemala, the challenge is to attract medium-sized projects that feed into these major value chains, positioning the country as a reliable and competitive provider of industrial services, infrastructure, and talent.
Guatemala’s Opportunity in the Industries of the Future
FDI flows are redefining global productive capacity. McKinsey estimates that the projects announced since 2022 could double the world’s data center capacity, increase semiconductor capacity by 60%, and quadruple battery capacity outside China. These figures foreshadow an industrial revolution driven by digitalization and the energy transition.
During the first quarter of 2025, Guatemala received approximately US$476 million in FDI, a 17% increase compared with the same period the previous year. This is excellent news that positions the country to enter this global dynamic through three key fronts.
The first is the digitalization of services. Major cloud and artificial intelligence providers are expanding their infrastructure in Latin America, but Central America still has few hubs. Encouraging the installation of regional data centers—leveraging macroeconomic stability and proximity to the U.S. market—would be a decisive step.
The second front is energy. Guatemala can position itself as a key player in the global energy transition. According to the report, investment in low-carbon projects has doubled since 2019, and renewable energy represents three-quarters of all announced energy investment. Guatemala’s energy matrix already has a high share of renewable generation, which can be leveraged to expand clean energy exports to neighboring markets. To attract investment in this sector, Guatemala can focus on developing modern energy infrastructure, such as high-capacity transmission lines and energy storage systems. Establishing clear and predictable regulatory frameworks will be essential to building confidence among international investors.
The third front is human capital development—the industries of the future demand advanced technical and digital skill sets. FDI can transfer knowledge, but only if it finds well-prepared ecosystems. In countries such as South Korea and Vietnam, the alliance between foreign investment and technical education was the driving force behind industrial development. Guatemala can replicate this model by strengthening its network of vocational and technical training programs in robotics, programming, industrial maintenance, and energy management.
Risks and Conditions for the Future
The bad news is that many investment announcements never materialize (around 30%), and in regions with greater institutional uncertainty, the rate is even lower. Guatemala faces this challenge. Business confidence depends on stable regulatory frameworks, predictable judicial systems, and efficient logistics infrastructure.
At the regional level, Latin America faces a dilemma. On one hand, it has abundant natural resources and a young workforce; on the other, it suffers from political volatility, regulatory inefficiency, and low infrastructure investment. In recent years, the annualized value of new FDI announcements has fallen to half the average seen before 2020. Regaining that dynamism requires more than tax incentives. The countries that succeed will be those that link foreign investment to sustainable industrial policies and strong local value chains.
In this regard, Guatemala can become an exemplary case if it orients its strategy toward FDI that builds national capabilities. Integrating into the semiconductor, electromobility, or software value chains does not require becoming a world leader—it requires becoming a reliable, complementary participant. Free zones, technology parks, and partnerships with universities can all serve as vehicles for investment attraction if they are aligned with a long-term vision.
If the country manages to build an environment that combines openness, stability, and technological vision, it can become part of the productive chains that will define Latin America’s industrial future and position itself as a bridge to long-term prosperity.