By the third quarter of 2025, non-mining and energy sectors accounted for almost 73% of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Colombia, with the agricultural sector taking a growing share.

Colombia’s agricultural sector has experienced a growth dynamic over the last decade, stimulated by part of the foreign capital that has entered production and export-oriented fruit chains. In crops such as avocado and blueberry, foreign capital has been attracted to productive efficiency projects, infrastructure, technology, and alignment with international standards, in a global fresh fruit market that registered an average annual growth rate of 3.4% in value between 2018 and 2023.

In an international context, with lower growth prospects and tighter financial conditions, FDI has tended to concentrate in destinations that provide more stability, market size, and future potential. In this context, Colombia has managed to maintain the interest of international capital, with an increasingly relevant trend: the growing share of non-mining and energy sectors such as agriculture and agribusiness.

Statistics from the Banco de la República show that, by the third quarter of 2025, these sectors accounted for nearly 73% of foreign direct investment in the country. This trend is based not only on macroeconomic conditions but also on structural changes in the conception of productive projects, in which sustainability, value generation, and integration into global supply chains play a central role.

Exports within the agricultural sector as an axis for investment

In this scenario, the agricultural and agribusiness sector has maintained steady growth over the last decade, in part, thanks to the arrival of foreign capital into production and export-oriented fruit chains. Avocado and blueberry, among others, have been attracting investments that seek to improve productivity, infrastructure, technological practices, and inputs, and alignment with international quality and commercial standards in a scenario in which the international fresh fruit market grew at an average annual rate of 3.4% in value between 2018 and 2023. This has established the sector as an increasingly relevant component of the foreign investment that enters the country.

The agricultural sector, however, has also had to face, in recent years, a series of challenges. Reports on the performance of different branches of the sector agree that 2024 was a growth year for Colombian agriculture. The sector was supported by a relatively stable situation in the international prices of inputs and favorable weather conditions for the crops. At the same time, agriculture has been facing major tests related to the security situation in rural areas, extreme climate events, logistical difficulties, and crop losses. Elements that point to the need to continue strengthening the frameworks of public policies and foreign investment to make the sector more resilient.

Access to Capital has Helped Colombia Agriculture

In this regard, factors such as access to capital have played an increasingly relevant role. As reported by specialized platforms such as ProducePay, external financing allows producers to invest in technology, post-harvest practices, cold storage, and logistics. These elements are essential for continuity, quality, and alignment with the standards required by international buyers, reducing risks and strengthening the stability of the agricultural supply chain.

In this way, the sectoral composition of foreign investment in 2025 reflects the same logic of transformation. Renewable energy led the list of projects that entered the country, followed by software and technology services. While agribusiness took one of the main positions in the investment portfolio of the year, in a scenario in which investors seek projects with productive impact, sustainability, and a long-term horizon.

In the territorial distribution, this trend has translated into an investment spread over more regions. Bogotá added the largest share of projects during the year. But almost twenty departments in the country were able to register foreign investment initiatives, reaffirming the role of regional areas as spaces for productive development, local value chains, and formal job creation, especially in activities linked to agriculture.

In this context, the figures announced by ProColombia for 2025 (178 foreign investment projects projecting the creation of more than 48,800 jobs) serve as an indicator of the type of projects that are coming into the country. For Colombian agriculture, this scenario means important opportunities but also challenges to translate interest from international capital into sustainable, competitive investments capable of strengthening rural development in the medium and long term.

Conclusion

In conclusion, foreign investment in Colombia consolidates an increasingly solid and strategic interest in Colombian agriculture, in such a way that the agricultural and agribusiness sector has established itself as a pillar of economic growth and job generation. Macroeconomic stability, access to financing, the use of modern technologies, and export orientation have made agriculture an attractive destination for foreign capital. However, sustaining this trend will require public policies, infrastructure, and sustainability strategies that allow translating investments into rural development, strengthened value chains, and long-term competitiveness. In this way, Colombian agriculture is building itself as one of the main components of the economic future of the country, with the capacity for attracting capital, generating value, and consolidating its presence in international markets.

The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) is returning to Bolivia after a 15-year hiatus. The institution’s president, Ilan Goldfajn, will be in the country on January 13 and 14 to hold a series of meetings with government officials and private-sector representatives, at a time when Bolivia seeks to maintain its level of public investment, stimulate private activity, and access new external financing. Should this meeting take place, it will be the first in 15 years to have the bank’s top authority on Bolivian soil. A visit that would be both symbolic and substantive, and many analysts see it as a new window of opportunity that may lead to increased financial flows.

Diplomatic protocol aside, there is an important economic substance behind the visit. For many years, the IDB has been one of Bolivia’s most important partners in development finance, with a particular focus on highway infrastructure and transport. As a matter of fact, virtually all of the official documents refer to the bank as the country’s leading source of external funding for road infrastructure, financing strategic corridors that facilitate connectivity, trade, and mobility. Thus, when the IBD returns to Bolivia, it is not just a matter of showing up but also of redoubling efforts to build long-term capacities and strengthen development bases.

Goldfajn is an experienced professional in his own right. An economist and seasoned professional in multilateral and central bank institutions, he has led the IDB since December 2022. Before that, he was Director of the Western Hemisphere Department at the International Monetary Fund and previously served as president of the Central Bank of Brazil, leading a period in which inflation was reduced, financial instruments were modernized, and policies won international recognition for their credibility. Such a leadership profile gives weight to the idea that the visit is part of a broader strategy as the IDB returns to Bolivia, rather than a one-time move.

Agenda for La Paz and Santa Cruz

Day one of the visit will be based in La Paz and will include official meetings at the Casa Grande del Pueblo. In this stage, Goldfajn will meet with the economic cabinet and the Foreign Minister, later continuing with a session with President Rodrigo Paz. A press conference will be held immediately afterwards in the same place, to give the public an account of the meeting and expose its priorities. The symbolic character of the meetings – high-level, programmed, and with an audience – conveys the message that the IBD returns to Bolivia willing to reinsert itself in the core of policy design.

The second day of meetings will take place in Santa Cruz de la Sierra, with a schedule that includes a meeting with the city’s business community. Goldfajn will maintain a dialogue with the leaders of the private sector about the opportunities that may exist in the financial field as the IDB returns to Bolivia, in projects that could be promoted, and in general, about how to increase productivity and foster economic diversification. Such dialogues are part of the recognition that growth cannot be sustained by public spending alone, but must also involve the promotion of the private sector, the attraction of capital, and the development of competitive sectors that can insert themselves more in regional and international markets.

What does the visit mean for Bolivia?

In the field of international finance, a high-level visit by IDB personnel is often interpreted as a sign of continuity and willingness to design new projects in a country. For Bolivia, which today seeks resources to finance infrastructure works, social programs, and productive projects, these signals are not something to be taken for granted. Documents related to the visit present it as a gesture of confidence that could facilitate the arrival of new lines of credit and foreign currency in a context in which the search for external financing remains relevant. In short, when the IBD returns to Bolivia, it signals that ties built over decades are not lost, but remain alive, adaptable, and capable of updating themselves along with new economic priorities.

Goldfajn himself has stated that Bolivia will be the first official trip of 2026 and that recent adjustments made by the Bolivian government in economic policy, aimed at restoring financial stability and laying the foundations for growth, would work in favor of this type of meeting. In parallel, IDB technical teams have been working in recent months with Bolivian authorities and private organizations on a more comprehensive agenda, to raise productivity, attract investment, and expand exports in the country, issues that become increasingly central to seek sustainable development. The visit, therefore, would not be an isolated exercise of outreach, but part of a coordinated process that is already positioned to turn dialogue into concrete programs.

The IDB’s track record in Bolivia

The IDB has been decisive in the financing of many infrastructure projects that have given shape to Bolivia’s connectivity and integration with its neighbors. In this way, the loans granted by the IDB traditionally have long maturities and development-focused conditions, which are factors that help countries maintain their investments without generating excessive fiscal pressures in the short term. Such characteristics are particularly valuable when governments seek to advance major public works, transport infrastructure, and institutional reforms that take time and stability to bear fruit.

In Bolivia, road projects financed by the IDB have often enabled communities to connect to markets, reduce transportation costs, and access basic services more widely. All these types of investment tend to have multiplier effects, since they not only support trade routes and strengthen supply chains, but also help improve the movement of people, goods, and ideas. Thus, as dialogue is reopened and the IDB returns to Bolivia, many of the actors involved hope the partnership will broaden towards other areas that complement and reinforce infrastructure, such as energy transition, digitalization, climate resilience, and financing programs for micro, small, and medium-sized companies.

A signal — and an opportunity

In short, the upcoming visit represents a symbolic reopening and a pragmatic opportunity. On the one hand, it signals that international partners still consider Bolivia a relevant actor in regional development initiatives, with the capacity to design credible projects consistent with long-term goals. But when the IDB returns to Bolivia, it does not do so only to review existing commitments. In that sense, there is an expectation that this meeting can place an agenda on the table that links the elements of infrastructure and innovation, credit and productivity, stability and inclusive growth.

For policymakers, entrepreneurs, and communities, this is also a moment of reflection on how multilateral cooperation can be leveraged more effectively. The success of the visit, and of the programs that could subsequently be generated, will depend on coordinated action, transparent execution, and a joint commitment to ensure that financing translates into development results that materialize on the ground. If so, the renewed engagement could help strengthen confidence, mobilize resources, and strengthen Bolivia’s capacity to face new economic challenges with greater diversification and resilience.

Peru had the second-lowest country risk in Latin America at the close of 2025. It had a value of 124 basis points, well below the regional average. This is due to the confidence that it has generated among investors. In 2025, Peru demonstrated its economic solidity and financial stability in international markets. According to data released by the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP), the country maintained a very low country risk level at the end of the year, measured by the EMBIG (Emerging Market Bond Index Global) indicator, remaining the second-lowest risk economy in Latin America after Chile.

This performance is the result not only of a favorable market perception but also of the prudent conduct of macroeconomic policies that Peru has maintained for years. Fiscal discipline, conservative debt management, and the low inflationary performance have positioned Peru as a market with an investment-grade perception among international credit rating agencies. In this sense, the commitment to structural reforms and incentives for private investment has further strengthened the country’s solidity even in periods of regional uncertainty.

This has also reinforced the image of macroeconomic solidity and fiscal responsibility that Peru has been building in recent years, despite being located in a region that has experienced episodes of volatility and financial uncertainty. In this context, Peru has emerged as a highly attractive option for investors seeking stable, predictable returns when considering investment projects in Latin America.

A historical trend that consolidates trust

The EMBIG indicator, which reflects the spread between the returns of Peruvian sovereign bonds and US Treasury bonds, showed a positive evolution throughout the year. While at the end of December 2023, the country risk was at 162 basis points, at the time of closing on December 22 of 2025 it had decreased to 124 basis points. This annual variation of 31 basis points shows a trend of improvement in the perception of international investors regarding the country’s ability to meet its obligations and the prudent management of its macroeconomic variables.

The practical impact of this situation is that Peru finds itself in a better position to access external financing and make itself more attractive for foreign investment. When deciding where to direct their business expansion strategies in Latin America, many companies take into account the country risk of the different economies. By being among the countries with the lowest country risk in Latin America, Peru now enjoys lower costs for new financing, better conditions for its credit lines, and greater confidence in the continuity and stability of fiscal and regulatory policies.

In addition, this situation is the result of the convergence of various favorable factors. Peru has been able to maintain a relatively low level of public debt in relation to GDP compared to other regional economies, and through interventions of its central bank, it has also achieved an inflation performance within the targeted ranges. Furthermore, the accumulation of comfortable foreign exchange reserves has allowed Peru to strengthen its protection against external shocks, which has reinforced its resilience to volatility in global financial markets. These structural advantages have enabled the country to weather external turbulence, such as variations in the prices of certain raw materials, without suffering significant impacts on its financial system.

Peru’s position in the regional landscape

Peru is well below the Latin American average. At the close of December 2025, Latin America’s EMBIG indicator was at 333 basis points, well above Peru’s, while the average for emerging economies it was at 235 basis points.

As for the most solid countries in the region, Chile topped the ranking with an indicator of 90 basis points, consolidating itself as the Latin American economy with the highest financial stability. Peru was in second place with 124 basis points, followed by Brazil with 198 and Mexico with 223. In turn, Colombia had a country risk of 275 basis points.

In contrast, in the economies with high spreads, where the indicators are above the Latin American average, the situations are more complex, due to the challenges associated with high public debts, political uncertainty or higher inflation rates. In Peru, maintaining a prudent economic policy has been a differentiating factor that has allowed it to stand out favorably with respect to its regional peers. In this way, for investors, the difference in country risk between economies like Peru or Chile and those with higher spreads in Latin America is very relevant in the decision-making process when allocating capital, large-scale investments, or financial assets in the region.

In this sense, lower-risk economies in Latin America tend to be the preferred destinations for infrastructure investments, corporate expansion, and portfolio diversification. This is due to the fact that these economies offer more stable and predictable fiscal and regulatory environments, better access to credit, and lower exposure to the fluctuations associated with political and economic volatility. For countries such as Argentina or Ecuador, which, despite having experienced significant improvements in their indicators during the year, still maintain a high level of risk. Argentina closed at 609 basis points and Ecuador at 536, well above the Pacific Alliance countries. For investors, this differential reinforces the importance of evaluating country risk in Latin America when they consider diversifying their portfolios or making investments.

Annual change and its consequences

The BCRP report indicates that most countries in the region managed to reduce their perceived risk in 2025. Peru’s 31-basis-point reduction reaffirmed its place as one of the most reliable economies in the region. Chile also reduced 28 basis points, while Mexico and Colombia decreased 91 and 48 points, respectively.

This behavior is associated with greater investor confidence, which allows economies to access external financing at more attractive rates and with lower additional costs. For countries with a country risk level similar to Peru, this context is fundamental to support their investment strategy, both public and private, as well as to improve their medium-term fiscal position. In this sense, the reduction of costs associated with external debt leaves more space for new public or private investment projects, in addition to allowing the promotion of infrastructure works, social programs, and key strategic projects for strengthening competitiveness.

In addition, the virtuous cycle that the reduction in the perceived country risk triggers also acts as an engine of economic growth. A greater inflow of foreign investment has a direct impact on GDP growth, which in turn allows for the generation of fiscal space that, when added to the reduction in the cost of external financing, contributes to further reducing country risk in Latin America. In this way, the evidence that Peru has demonstrated in 2025 serves as an example of how macroeconomic discipline and confidence in international markets can be translated into tangible benefits for public accounts and the private sector in general.

Country risk in Latin America is an important issue for any investor

In simple terms, country risk can be compared to the evaluation that a bank or financial entity will make of the financial situation of a person who seeks a loan. A borrower who has a stable income, low debt burden, and a good credit history will receive better rates and conditions. Similarly, countries with a low level of country risk, like Peru or Chile, considered economically responsible, pay lower rates on their external debt.

On the other hand, economies with greater uncertainty and instability, either politically, fiscally, or externally, have to pay higher interest rates to their creditors. This is due to the fact that investors demand greater returns as compensation for the risk of investing their money in that market. For this reason, Peru’s low risk at the end of 2025 corroborated its current position as one of the most solid and reliable economies in the region.

For any investor who is deciding between different economies and markets to deploy their financial resources in Latin America, the country risk factor must be taken into account. As mentioned before, a high-risk rating in Latin America forces an economy to have to offer greater risk premiums to its creditors, which translates into an increase in the cost of financing and new investments. Lowering the cost of capital has a direct impact on the country’s ability to carry out infrastructure projects, corporate expansion or new financial investments.

In a region that is characterized by its economic and political diversity, Peru’s commitment to building a solid and predictable investment climate has clearly differentiated it from its regional peers. As Peru continues to strengthen its position as a model of financial stability in Latin America, it will be essential to uphold the high standards that have allowed it to reach the lowest risk levels in the region. This will not only help attract high-quality foreign investment but will also have positive effects on the overall growth of the econom

Four years ago, the Japanese multinational Suzuki made a decision. In August 2021, it ended its commercial relationship with a distributor.

However, a group of businesspeople — including Ecuadorians — believed the brand still had room in the country. So explains Esteban Acosta, general manager of Suzuki in Ecuador.

“They asked that there be legal certainty. They said, ‘All right, we’re going to bet on the country again.” In this way, they secured an investment of $21.1 million through 2025. For 2026, they hope to inject another $5 million, bringing the total to about $26.1 million, excluding the company’s assets.

Italy and China climbed to the top of investment in Ecuador — but in different years: What did they invest in?

“The long term was considered instead of short-term immediacy. That investment is also accompanied by employment. This year, we offered between 40 and 50 jobs, especially for technicians who will receive brand training,” Acosta says.

Suzuki is one of many foreign companies investing in Ecuador. According to the Central Bank, capital inflows in the first half of 2024 reached $184 million — lower than the same period in 2025, when they totaled $275 million. That means an increase of $90 million, which is positive for foreign direct investment in Ecuador.

“It is a relevant increase because it reflects a recovery of confidence in Ecuador compared with the previous year. It is not only numerical growth, but also a sign that certain sectors are becoming attractive again,” says economic analyst Héctor Delgado.

Juan David Espinoza, professor at UIDE Business School, notes that this represents a 48.6% increase—an encouraging signal amid political uncertainty, security problems, and weak productive growth. He adds that consistent foreign direct investment in Ecuador helps stabilize expectations and support job creation.

But it is essential to identify where that investment is going, says Julio Galárraga, academic coordinator of Economics at Universidad de las Américas. The main sectors are agriculture, forestry, hunting and fishing; mining and quarrying; and business services, including financial and insurance activities — areas that increasingly attract foreign direct investment in Ecuador.

U.S. tariffs in play: Foreign trade expert Daniel Legarda says that Panama’s removal from the tax-haven list opens a new path for Ecuador.

“Undoubtedly, the increase in FDI in agriculture, forestry, hunting, and fishing is striking — it increased sevenfold — and part of this is linked to the shrimp industry, which posted excellent results in 2025,” Galárraga explains.

Where is the investment coming from?

The main investing countries are in Latin America and Asia, and one that had not traditionally been on the radar appeared in the first half of 2025: Singapore. Investment reached $49 million in agriculture, forestry, fishing, and related sectors.

This phenomenon can be interpreted as a strategy of food security and control of global supply chains — typical of highly technological Asian economies, Espinoza explains. He notes that such strategies reinforce the role of foreign direct investment in Ecuador within global production networks.

He adds that Singapore tends to invest through specialized financial channels, partnerships with local firms, and export-oriented projects — “which reinforces the need for policies that guarantee technology transfer and local value creation.”

Spain is the second-largest investor. In the first six months of 2025, it invested $36 million — up from $22 million during the same period in 2024.

Galárraga notes that the European country focuses on mining, quarrying, and manufacturing, which is not surprising, he says, given growing interest in strengthening its regional presence through sustainable foreign direct investment in Ecuador.

The United States is another major investor in the first half of 2025, with $29 million — slightly below the $34 million recorded in the same period of 2024.

“The United States focuses more on business services, technology, and consulting, which shows that Ecuador is integrating more into global service chains. Both cases reflect more stable, long-term foreign direct investment in Ecuador,” Delgado explains.

Galárraga points out that FDI from the United States is expected to grow in the future due to Washington’s renewed interest in Latin America and ongoing cooperation on anti-narcotics efforts.

Why is legal certainty key for foreign investment? Experts answer

China is also undeniably one of the major players investing in Ecuador. In the first half of 2024, it recorded $31 million, but in the same period of 2025, that figure fell to $25 million.

The Asian country focuses mainly on mining and quarrying, and invests $1 million each in trade and manufacturing. Other investors include Panama ($20 million), Chile ($18 million), the Virgin Islands ($14 million), Uruguay ($12 million), and Argentina ($11 million) in the first half of 2025.

Argentina invests in Ecuador

Argentina has focused on trade, mining and quarrying, transportation, and other activities. One company that trusts the Ecuadorian market is the Argentine firm Top Rentals, specializing in temporary accommodations in the Qorner and Epiq buildings in Quito.

Sebastián Picasso, general manager of Top Rentals, says the company chose Ecuador because it saw an opportunity.

“It is a country with steady growth in tourism and corporate travel, but where there is still no true professionalization of flexible apartment rentals with hotel-style services. The demand exists, but the product has not yet been developed to international standards,” he says.

Still, he sees a market ready to evolve. “Ecuador represents a strategic regional step,” he concludes.

Investment focus on trade and services

Most of the top ten investing countries focus on three areas: trade, mining and quarrying, and business services, according to Central Bank data for the first half of 2025. These areas continue to drive foreign direct investment in Ecuador.

Argentina, for example, invested more than $5 million in trade, followed by Spain with $3.4 million. In mining and quarrying, China leads with $25 million.

Spain appears again with $16 million, and Uruguay with $10 million. In business services, the Virgin Islands recorded $14 million in investment, while the United States and Spain each invested $4 million — highlighting the increasingly diversified landscape of foreign direct investment in Ecuador.

Conclusion

In the end, the recent rise in foreign direct investment in Ecuador signals more than a temporary uptick in capital flows — it reflects cautious yet meaningful confidence in the country’s long-term potential.

Investors from Asia, Europe, and the Americas are diversifying across agriculture, mining, services, and technology, helping integrate Ecuador more deeply into global supply chains while supporting jobs and innovation at home. Yet this momentum will only be sustainable if policymakers strengthen legal certainty, improve security, and ensure that new projects translate into local value creation. If those foundations hold, foreign direct investment in Ecuador can evolve from episodic growth into a stable engine that supports productivity, competitiveness, and inclusive development — positioning the country more favorably within an increasingly competitive regional landscape.

The 2026 review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will trigger a formal trilateral process by which Mexico, the United States, and Canada will assess the performance of the treaty and decide whether or not to extend it for a further 16 years. As the review will take place at a time when there is significant debate over nearshoring, rules of origin, and competitiveness, particularly in the context of supply chains adapting to the post-pandemic and geopolitical reordering, the USMCA 2026 review will be an important factor in trade certainty, investment confidence, and capital flows into Mexico and the region as a whole.

There is some guardedness in multinational companies, but the baseline for most observers is one of continuity. The logic goes that the economic importance of the treaty — along with deep productive integration between the three countries — makes a rupture unlikely and instead points to targeted adjustments. Mexican government statements, private sector forecasts, and expert commentary in various recent economic forums have been mostly aligned in saying one thing: that stability and predictability in the treaty is essential for nearshoring momentum and for avoiding caution on long-term investment decisions.

Details of the 2026 Review Calendar

The treaty lays out a timeline for the process. The three countries will, in a formal process from January to July 2026, review the performance of the treaty and will make a decision whether or not to extend it. It should be noted that this process is not an automatic sunset. Rather, it would trigger a process that would reaffirm commitments, modernize the treaty, and extend it for a further 16 years. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has said Mexico would come to the table from a place of strength in view of solid macroeconomic numbers in Mexico and positive early signals from the United States. For companies and investors doing business in North America, the USMCA 2026 review will represent a landmark: in addition to the legal assessment of performance, it will be a strategic moment that will have implications for corporate planning and investment horizons.

Mexico and the Competitive Edge of Nearshoring

The most important opportunity associated with a successful USMCA 2026 review will be the further acceleration of nearshoring, meaning the relocation of production of manufacturing and services closer to the North American market. In the quest for more resilience, cost competitiveness, and logistical reliability, many global companies are recognizing Mexico’s geographical and productive advantages in terms of proximity to the United States and integration into its supply chains. Entering into the USMCA 2026 review process, Mexico can tout advantages such as:

• Deep integration in regional value chains, especially automotive and electronics.
• Competitive manufacturing costs and an increasing technical talent pool.
• Growing logistics infrastructure, with strategic development corridors.
• Proactive participation of the private sector through consultative working groups.

Business organizations in Mexico have calculated that Mexico could be looking at exports of more than $700 billion in 2026, if policy consistency is maintained and trade rules remain predictable.

Sensitive Regulatory Topics in the Context of the 2026 Review

While broad support for the treaty is widely assumed, the USMCA 2026 review will not be without issues. Energy policy continues to be one of the most high-profile topics, as investors will look for clear regulation and more competitive pricing for industry to power continued expansion. Rules of origin, especially in the automotive sector, will also be a key focus, with manufacturers looking for clarity on the rules in order to manage the cost of compliance while remaining price competitive. In addition to energy and rules of origin, there are new issues such as e-commerce regulation, cross-border data flows, cybersecurity standards, and artificial intelligence governance and regulation that will become increasingly pertinent to any modern trade agreement. This will be layered on top of the evolution of US trade policy, which has seen the United States turn to tariffs as an economic negotiating tool in addition to China’s growing role in many supply chains. Mexico will be looking to balance a diversification push with maintaining North American integration as a top priority.

Sectoral Impacts of the Review

• Automotive: changes to rules of origin would have an impact on sourcing strategies and plant investment.
• Agriculture: Sanitary and phytosanitary standards are a key determinant of cross-border flows.
• Manufacturing and electronics: push to regionalization may boost component production.
• Logistics and infrastructure: would require continued investment to keep up with expected higher volumes. Ports, highways, and rail corridors in particular.

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) can also gain from the review, if it brings simplification, digital customs processes, and capacity-building programs to better connect SMEs and local suppliers with multinational production value chains.

Outcomes: Stability to Stress Test

A number of outcomes can be considered as realistic. An optimistic scenario would be an extension of the treaty with limited changes to strengthen investor confidence and accelerate nearshoring. The baseline (conservative) scenario would likely involve a targeted renegotiation focused on maintaining trilateral productive integration while resolving specific irritants. An adverse scenario would see higher levels of political posturing and possibly some localized disputes, but with a still low probability of a treaty collapse. Former USMCA chief negotiator Kenneth Smith Ramos has made the point that this is no symbolic process — the treaty renegotiation is technically complex and politically sensitive and would need to be carefully managed by all three governments.

Mexico’s Preparations for the 2026 Review

For Mexico’s part, the challenge would be to approach the USMCA 2026 review process with a well-coordinated national strategy. This means:

• Dialogue with the private sector must be strengthened.
• Legal and regulatory certainty, especially in the energy sector and permitting, must be provided.
• Skills training would have to be ramped up to meet industry needs.
• Customs processes, ports, and logistics corridors would have to be modernized.

Done well, the process can become a catalyst for attracting more high-value manufacturing, technological adoption and increasing Mexico’s share in the participation in advanced industries such as electric vehicles, medical devices and aerospace.

Conclusion: 2026 Could be a Transformative Opportunity

In many ways, 2026 will be a year of transformation in the economic integration of North America. For investors, the USMCA 2026 review is less about renegotiating the rules of the game, but more about a confirmation of stability over the long term. For governments, the USMCA 2026 review would be a moment for modernization of the treaty as well as building trust. If Mexico can continue to address regulatory uncertainty, increase transparency, and use its competitive advantages, then 2026 could become less of a moment of uncertainty and more of a springboard for sustained growth and deeper integration into global supply chains, making the economy stronger in both the domestic and North American contexts.