The Ecuadorian government has reduced country risk by almost 1,300 points since 2023; Noboa points out that this is the result of his economic policy.
The country risk of Ecuador decreased to 688 points, based on the latest data released by the Central Bank of Ecuador (BCE). This indicator measures the perception of investors about a country’s ability to pay and meet its financial commitments, and has marked a new milestone in the history of Ecuador. The current value has been registered as a noticeable decrease from 693 points the previous day, on Thursday, November 6, and an even more significant drop when compared to the values that were still above 2,000 points a year ago.
President Daniel Noboa described the event as a reflection of regained confidence in the South American nation. In a statement broadcast on national television and shared on social media, Noboa said that the drop in country risk is a direct result of his government’s economic and fiscal reforms, which seek to restore stability, rebuild credibility with international creditors, and generate conditions for long-term investments to arrive in the country.
The Ecuadorian president also commented on the low inflation rate of 1.24% in October, the lowest for that month since 2021, as a strong indicator of a more stable and controlled macroeconomic environment. Noboa has also explained that the low inflation is a safeguard for the purchasing power of households, a factor that reduces uncertainty for businesses and investors, and also allows for a more predictable environment for investment.
Daniel Noboa shares achievements about Ecuador country risk
In his official X (formerly Twitter) account, the President published a post sharing information about Ecuador country risk, and he details that this shows real and positive economic results.
“The lies fall by themselves when there are results. Our country risk has fallen to 688 points, down nearly 1,300 points since we took office, and inflation in October 2025 was 1.24%, the lowest for that month since 2021,” he said.
The country risk index is an indicator that measures the sentiment of investors and international markets regarding the creditworthiness of a particular nation. A high indicator value means that the international market considers the country to be a high-risk destination for investment, which results in higher interest rates for loans. A lower country risk value, on the other hand, is a sign of greater confidence, allowing access to international financing at lower rates, and it also enables the government to carry out funding for development projects with greater ease.
Economists in the country and abroad have considered this reduction in country risk to be one of the largest that has occurred in the Latin American region in the last year. This measure reflects, on the one hand, the positive reception that the market has given to fiscal discipline and, on the other hand, that it anticipates that the government will continue on a steady path of responsible management of the country’s economy.
Ecuador’s International Reputation Improves
The fall of Ecuador country risk by more than 1,300 points since President Daniel Noboa took office in November 2023 has led to an improvement in the country’s image in international markets. The dramatic drop in risk from 2,016 points to 688 is seen as an endorsement of the administration’s pragmatic and market-friendly approach to economic recovery.
The financial community believes that the decrease in country risk will allow Ecuador not only to obtain better conditions when requesting loans on the international stage, but also to improve the outlook of the private sector. As credit costs decrease, both public and private companies will have easier access to financing for projects in areas such as infrastructure, energy, and technology. All these achievements will also open the doors for job creation and will contribute to the diversification of the economy in areas such as agriculture, mining, renewable energies, and logistics.
The Central Bank of Ecuador and several financial analysts have agreed that this steady decline in country risk opens the way to obtaining new lines of credit from multilateral organizations and foreign investors. In addition, this improvement boosts Ecuador’s reputation as a reliable investment destination, especially at a time when international markets are looking for stable and transparent economies in Latin America.
Analysts have also pointed out that government efforts to modernize the public sector, rationalize spending, and promote greater private participation in key sectors have helped to create a more predictable business environment. Dialogue with business associations and a commitment to transparency are also being recognized as key factors behind the positive reaction of the markets.
IMF publishes criticism of Rafael Correa’s “Correísmo” model
The announcement by President Noboa comes at a time when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also published a report on the economic model of “Correísmo”, a term used to refer to the policies followed by former President Rafael Correa from 2007 to 2017.
The IMF report points out that this model left behind an economy with fiscal fragility, high spending, and debt accumulation.
According to the IMF, public spending reached historic levels under the Correa administration, with financing coming mainly from oil revenues and external loans, without the corresponding increase in productivity or reserves to protect the country’s medium and long-term stability.
“The country financed current expenses and extensive subsidies with extraordinary oil revenues, with credit and with savings funds,” the report said.
The report criticizes that this model created a dependence on a variable factor, such as the price of oil, and limited fiscal space to adjust in case of adversity. In addition, it defined Correa’s policies as procyclical, that is, instead of saving or reducing debt in times of boom, the state increased its spending and subsidies.
In 2012-2014, the non-financial public sector deficit went from almost zero to 3.5% of GDP, reflecting a deterioration of fiscal discipline. In subsequent years, when the price of oil plummeted, Ecuador found itself with less liquidity and fewer resources to cope with external shocks.
The IMF report also notes that the model of “Correísmo” weakened Ecuador’s capacity to create buffers for times of crisis, favoring short-term spending over structural reforms. As a result, the country emerged less able to face volatility in international markets and with a weaker and less competitive state, burdened with debt and without fiscal space to implement countercyclical policies.
“The legacy of that model is a more vulnerable, less competitive state with no fiscal space to respond to external shocks,” concluded the IMF.
Toward a new economic stage
The administration of Daniel Noboa, on the other hand, has positioned itself as a promoter of fiscal responsibility, transparency, and modernization. The implementation of measures such as the promotion of responsible debt management, the encouragement of private-sector investment, and the strengthening of relations with multilateral organizations has been crucial for rebuilding Ecuador’s credibility.