Amid external uncertainty over global tariff policies and geopolitical tensions, Guatemalan exports maintain a favorable scenario. Guatemala’s foreign trade closed the year with remarkable strength in 2025, consolidating the figures reported in the first half and even more optimistically for the end of 2026. In a detailed report, the latest data from the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) shows that foreign exchange earnings from exports closed at 13.055 billion dollars between January and October 2025, 7% higher than the same period of the previous year. The result evidences the sector’s competitiveness and, in addition, a progressively more diversified export basket.
In total, the exports of apparel were for 1.2883 billion dollars (9.9% of the total), followed by coffee (9.3%), bananas (6.8%), and sugar (6.3%). Traditional agricultural exports remain key pillars, but the weight of manufacturing and processed goods sectors is growing. Meanwhile, higher value-added products (food preparations, plastics, and chemical products, among others) are gaining share. These products are beginning to make inroads in external markets and strengthen the Guatemalan economy’s integration into regional and global value chains.
Accordingly, during a press conference — where the Central Bank announced that it will review economic growth in December — Banguat’s economic manager, Johny Gramajo, stated that for 2025, exports will close at a central growth value of 6%. “Exports are one of the main pillars that support Guatemalan economic growth and the creation of employment,” Gramajo reiterated. The country’s export growth had already closed the first half of 2025 in force. The strategy will be to extend the momentum beyond this year.
The Impact of Tariffs
2026 looks solid, and monetary authorities have revised growth upward for next year, in which exports will continue to rise at a 6.0%. A major reason is the effect of trade agreements with the United States, where tariff reductions will take place. These will work to further strengthen Guatemala’s competitiveness against other regional exporting economies, especially in those sectors in which price sensitivity is high, and tariff preferences are key to maintaining market share.
“The question about tariffs — the effects of the agreement that Guatemala reached with the United States — obviously will not be reflected in 2025, but particularly in 2026. That is why we are improving our export projection,” Gramajo reiterated. Lower tariff barriers in priority sectors, such as textiles, agricultural goods, and certain manufactured products, will benefit exporters by reducing costs and incentivizing investment in productive capacity. Companies are already planning investments in machinery, logistics, and workforce training to take advantage of the expected commercial benefits.
Beyond the reduction of tariffs, it is also expected that continued efforts to simplify customs procedures, digitalize trade documentation, and modernize port and road infrastructure will also benefit the Guatemalan export growth. Structural improvements will help to reduce bottlenecks, shorten delivery times, and improve reliability, essential factors for international buyers when evaluating the resilience of supply chains.
Strength in Manufacturing and Textiles
The textile industry, according to the projections, will grow from an estimated 2.7% in 2024 to 4% in 2026. Textiles – which represent nearly one-third of sales to the U.S. market – will be able to count on tariff exemptions already being factored into official estimates. The apparel sector, which is concentrated mainly in special economic zones and export processing areas, is also reinforcing its competitive advantages of flexibility, labor skills, and proximity to the North American market.
Alfredo Blanco, vice president of the Bank of Guatemala, also reinforced the projections by noting that “there is an improvement from 2.7% in 2025 to 4.0% in 2026 in the manufacturing industry, and included in that improvement is the announcement by the respective authorities of tariff reductions for textiles as well as certain agricultural products.” The combination of tariff preferences and trends towards nearshoring, where companies move production closer to their main consumer markets, is expected to generate new investments in the Guatemalan manufacturing base.
In addition, Guatemala is undergoing progressive diversification within the manufacturing industry. Sectors that produce auto parts, medical supplies, plastics, and packaging materials are expanding. These, in turn, generate higher technology transfer levels and formal employment, thus reinforcing the sustainability of Guatemalan export growth. The strengthening of vocational and technical training programs is also added to the mix to support this transition and give companies more specialized human capital aligned with international quality standards.
Diversification, New Markets and Resilience
In the midst of an international environment marked by headwinds, including uncertainty over the global tariff policies and geopolitical tensions, the Guatemalan economy continues to project resilience. Exporters are not only deepening traditional ties with the United States but are also seeking new opportunities in Mexico, other Central American countries, Europe, and parts of Asia. This market diversification will allow Guatemala to mitigate risk exposure to external shocks in any of the destinations and support more stable foreign exchange earnings.
Likewise, agricultural producers are also betting more on differentiated and higher value segments, such as specialty coffees, processed foods, and certified sustainable products. These, in turn, are able to command premium prices and offer better long-term demand prospects. Meanwhile, the rise of service exports, which ranges from call centers to business process outsourcing and digital services, is also complementing the performance of goods exports, and thus contributing indirectly to Guatemalan export growth through job creation, consumption, and domestic investment.
In an environment where GDP growth is projected at 3.7% for 2026, and inflation remains under control, the export sector is consolidating itself as a key engine of stability and economic development for the country in the short and medium term, according to Banguat. Stable macroeconomic conditions, prudent monetary policy and sustained remittances also reinforce domestic demand and help create a favorable environment for companies aiming to expand production for external markets.
Investment in trade-related infrastructure, logistics corridors, and renewable energy also plays a key role in enhancing competitiveness by reducing companies’ operational costs and improving reliability for international buyers. As companies adopt new technologies in quality control, traceability and logistics management, Guatemala’s position as a reliable supplier is reinforced across agricultural, manufacturing and emerging service sectors.
In short, 2026 stands out as a key year for the consolidation of export growth for Guatemala. With tariff policies favoring exporters, expanded manufacturing capacity, diversification of markets and resilient macroeconomic fundamentals, Guatemala is well positioned to take advantage of global trade opportunities. Continued progress in infrastructure, institutional reforms and workforce development are essential for transforming short-term export momentum into sustainable growth that benefits companies, workers and communities across Guatemala.